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GitHub Octoverse 2026：月度协作量级与统计口径更新

  • 前情提要：此前 Octoverse 2026 已披露年度推送 179 亿次、提交 343 亿次、合并 PR 13 亿个，以及 9 月超 40% PR 由 Agent 发起等数据。
  • 最新披露：GitHub EVP Jay Parikh 在 Universe 2026 现场公布三项月度指标——合并 PR 达 2.2 亿/月、提交达 73.8 亿/月、新增仓库达 3030 万/月。合并 PR 在不到一年内增至三倍，提交量增长超过三倍且多数增幅发生在本年下半年，新仓库创建速率年内翻倍。
  • 统计口径：报告新增按 NAICS 行业划分的公开仓库统计，并单独统计名称、描述、主题或 README 涉及互操作性、逆向工程、净室实现、直接替换或协议重实现的仓库；国家分布统计中引入 LLM 从用户 profile 提取 ISO 国家代码，以校正 VPN 使用带来的偏差。
  • 行业意义：这些是平台活动指标，反映 Agentic engineering 正在推高 GitHub 上的 PR、提交与仓库创建量级；对工具链与平台团队而言，审查、合并、CI 与仓库治理的负载会随这些指标同步上升，而不只体现在代码生成环节。

🔗 Simon Willison's Weblog | GitHub Octoverse 2026

Photo of a conference keynote stage: a wide curved screen shows three line charts side by side, with a speaker in a black sweater and dark jeans standing at its right edge beneath an overhead lighting rig. Each chart has a large colored headline number above it and a shaded line that runs low and neBar chart titled “The year of momentum” showing growth from 2024 to 2026 in GitHub activity. Pushes increased from 5.2B to 6.7B to 17.9B; commits from 10.0B to 12.9B to 34.3B; Actions jobs from 8.0B to 14.0B to 45.4B; and merged pull requests from 402M to 538M to 1.3B. Figures include public and priThree panels report GitHub Actions job volume: 1,440 jobs run every second, 124 million run every day, and 45 billion ran in the past 12 months. The panels have white backgrounds with pink and green pixel-style borders.Line chart titled “GitHub activity accelerated through 2026,” comparing monthly activity with September 2025 (1×). From September 2025 to September 2026, commits rise to 6×, Actions jobs to about 4.8×, pushes to about 4.5×, and merged pull requests to about 3.9×. All four series accelerate sharply aTable titled “Progress toward 2030 projections” compares net developers added in 2026 with each country’s projected developer population in 2030, showing progress one year into the projection. Morocco is furthest along at 54.4%, followed by Indonesia at 45.4%; Kenya is least far along at 21.7%. TheLine chart showing 43 forecasts for GitHub developer growth from September 2026 to September 2031, with all starting at 1×. By 2031, 21 models project extreme growth of 3× or more (some above 6×), 19 project substantial growth of 2× to under 3×, and 3 project modest growth below 2×.